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13.05% annualized after modeled trading costs, using five ETFs and a monthly decision. Our VIX-adaptive rotation finished ahead of the fixed-lookback version, which returned 11.51%.
FPM historical house adaptation, July 31, 2017–June 30, 2026, with returns accruing from August 2017. Both figures are CAGRs after 10bp per dollar traded and use information available one session before execution.
Completed simulation, not live returns or an exact source replication. The adaptive strategy had a 21.70% maximum drawdown, and its incremental advantage remains statistically uncertain.
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The headline is the starting point. The subscriber analysis takes you through:
- The VIX thresholds, momentum windows and five-ETF decision tree
- Top-one versus top-two results with matching timing and costs
- The uncertainty test and a practical plan for tracking live decisions
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